“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
–Mark Twain
In 1978, an upstart Cincinnati radio station was fighting for relevance and looking to make a name for itself. The show’s producer came up with a promotional stunt that, in theory, would put them on the map. They would host an event at a local shopping center to give away free turkeys.
Listeners were fading. Advertising dollars were dwindling. The fledgling station poured every last dollar into this one event—a big, desperate bet to save the business.
Word spread. Security was hired. When the day arrived, local news media were on hand and there was standing room only in the parking lot. The crowd buzzed with anticipation, anxiously awaiting their free Thanksgiving turkeys.
Then, in an effort to “take it up a notch,” the station manager rented a helicopter.
As the chopper roared overhead and pitched nose-down in a tight circle, excitement built. The on-air reporter delivered live commentary with all the gravitas reserved for moon landings or major political events. Then came the moment of truth: the helicopter doors opened, and “free Thanksgiving turkeys” began their descent. Only problem: turkeys don’t fly.
They plummeted—straight down. Cars were dented. Windows shattered. People were knocked unconscious. The surviving turkeys erupted into frantic chaos upon landing. The reporter shouted updates like a man narrating the end of civilization. When the dust and panic finally settled, Arthur Carlson uttered the immortal line: “As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.”
The entire spectacle has lived on for nearly fifty years. If you want to revisit it, just search “WKRP in Cincinnati1 Thanksgiving” on YouTube.
Overconfidence doesn’t announce itself. It disguises itself as certainty.
Carlson didn’t set out to wreck Thanksgiving or traumatize an entire community. He wanted to do something bold. Memorable. Attention-grabbing. He just never paused to ask the simplest question: “Can turkeys actually fly?”
This is exactly how some investing decisions get made. We latch onto the story. We chase the excitement. We convince ourselves that “this time is different.” We assume we know what comes next because we want it to come next.
And we forget to ask the questions that matter: Is the underlying idea structurally sound? Do the fundamentals have wings—and are those wings functional? History is full of investment turkeys dressed up as eagles.
Speaking of turkeys… try this one.
Maple–Chili Glazed Turkey Breast (Sweet Heat)
Ingredients
· 1 turkey breast
· 1/2 cup pure maple syrup
· 2 tbsp chili powder
· 2 tbsp soy sauce
· 2 tbsp butter, melted
· 4 cloves garlic, minced
· Salt & pepper
Instructions
1. Preheat oven to 325°F.
2. Pat turkey dry; season generously with salt & pepper.
3. Mix maple syrup, chili powder, soy sauce, butter, and garlic.
4. Brush half the glaze over the turkey.
5. Roast according to weight; baste with remaining glaze every 20 minutes.
6. Let rest 20 minutes before slicing.
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This Thanksgiving, I am deeply thankful for you, my clients and friends, for the trust you place in me, and for the opportunity to be a part of your journey. I am grateful not just for the food on our tables but for the people who enrich our lives.
